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RFK Jr.’s Campaign Suspension Gives Donald Trump a Lead Over Kamala Harris: Polymarket

August 23, 2024

New data from the decentralized prediction market Polymarket reveals that Donald Trump is leading Kamala Harris in polls after Robert Kennedy Jr. suspended his presidential campaign.

According to the crypto casino, which lets users bet on the outcome of anything, Trump now has a 51% chance to win the 2024 presidential election while Harris – who took over as the Democratic nominee from Joe Biden last month – saw her odds dip down to 48%.

“This market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if Donald J. Trump wins the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to ‘No.’

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate.

If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2025) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.”

The data reveals that so far, over $705 million worth of bets have been placed on the election through Polymarket.

RFK Jr., a Democrat who ran as an independent, recently announced that he would be suspending his campaign after only polling at 2%. He endorsed Trump.

In July, bettors on Polymarket predicted about a 6 in 10 chance that Biden would hold on to the rest of his presidency despite dropping out of the race and endorsing Harris.

Weeks earlier, the marketplace predicted a 35% chance of Biden dropping out of the race. He dropped out on July 21st.

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Featured Image: Shutterstock/Tithi Luadthong